Determining strategy   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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Is a bunt a good play?

RE 99-02	0	1	2
Empty	0.555	0.297	0.117
1st	0.953	0.573	0.251
2nd	1.189	0.725	0.344
3rd	1.482	0.983	0.387
1st_2nd	1.573	0.971	0.466
1st_3rd	1.904	1.243	0.538
2nd_3rd	2.052	1.467	0.634
Loaded	2.417	1.65	0.815

• Runner on second and nobody out. You can expect to score 1.19 runs.

• Look at the most likely outcomes.

• Bunt is successful, runner on third and one out. You can expect to score 0.983 runs. Lower than what we started with.

• Bunt is unsuccessful, runner on first and one out. You can expect to score 0.573 runs.

• Early in the game bunting generally reduces the number of runs you can expect to score. Though it will usually increase the probability of scoring a single run. Earl Weaver said, ``Play for one run and that is all you'll get.''

• If we want to score at least one run, we have a probability of 63% of scoring from second with no one out.

• After a successful bunt, we will score from third with one out 66% of the time.

• After an unsuccessful bunt, we will score from first with one out 28% of the time. We have to bunt successfully almost 90% of the time to make it worthwhile.

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