baseball_2006-02-21   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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Determining strategy

• Tactical decisions in a game are an attempt to score more runs.

• Early in the game, the goal is to score as much as possible.

• Later on, the goal may be to score just one.

• Is bunting or stealing bases a good move?

• Probability can be used to predict the average number of runs scored in a given situation.

• The following table (1999-2002) is the average number of runs scored in an inning based given a number of runners on base and the number of outs.

  RE 99-02	0	1	2
  Empty	0.555	0.297	0.117
  1st	0.953	0.573	0.251
  2nd	1.189	0.725	0.344
  3rd	1.482	0.983	0.387
  1st_2nd	1.573	0.971	0.466
  1st_3rd	1.904	1.243	0.538
  2nd_3rd	2.052	1.467	0.634
  Loaded	2.417	1.65	0.815

  Source: TangoTiger on Baseball

• For example, a team with the bases loaded and none out should expect to score 2.42 runs.

• The following table (1999-2002) is probability of scoring at least one run in an inning based given a number of runners on base and the number of outs.

  RE 99-02	0	1	2
  Empty	0.293	0.173	0.077
  1st	0.437	0.283	0.136
  2nd	0.632	0.406	0.233
  3rd	0.864	0.662	0.263
  1st_2nd	0.641	0.426	0.231
  1st_3rd	0.876	0.655	0.285
  2nd_3rd	0.856	0.695	0.276
  Loaded	0.872	0.670	0.325

  Source: TangoTiger on Baseball

• For example, a team with the bases loaded and none out should score at least one run 87% of the time.

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