How can we use this?

What offensive stats are <- Talks <- Sean Forman <- You Are Here

Next: Conclusions / Previous: Runs Created and Linear / Up: What offensive stats are

What if the Mets signed Carlos Beltran?
We'll assume that they switch Cameron to RF (so Beltran is replacing their RFers) and that switching Cameron to RF saves them 10 runs on defense and that all of the other players do the same as last year.
Mets RFers created 82 runs last year in 700 Plate Appearances.
Carlos Beltran created 128 runs in 708 plate appearances, so we can assume he'll be worth an extra 46 runs on offense and 10 runs on defense.
The Mets in 2004 scored 684 runs and allowed 731 (for a 76-86 pythagorean W-L record, 5 games unlucky).
In 2005, our projection shows 730 runs scored and 721 runs allowed for a Pythag. W-L record of 82-80. $17m for six wins.
If Pedro can save them 40 runs over Leiter and his backups that will get them to 86-76.
The Mets need better years from Reyes, Wright, Piazza, Floyd, and Benson to make the playoffs. Pedro, Beltran, and the same old thing won't get it done.
In actuality, the Mets improved by 38 runs on offense and 83 on defense and were an 89 win team, though they only won 83 games total.
Forecasting is very hard.

Next: Conclusions / Previous: Runs Created and Linear