Modelling Individual Games   <- Talks   <-  Sean Forman   <-  You Are Here

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Gathered Data on Point Spreads and Outcomes

• Note that Sagarin lists home court as being worth 4.0 to 4.1 points, so we'll use that when compute the team point spread.

• Spread w/ home court	Fav. Wins	Fav. Loses	Prob.
  0-1	152	143	0.520
  1-2	221	146	0.600
  2-3	197	128	0.610
  3-4	197	115	0.630
  4-5	227	95	0.700
  5-6	214	75	0.740
  6-7	266	56	0.830
  7-8	208	48	0.810
  8-9	185	41	0.820
  9-10	181	34	0.840
  10-11	178	18	0.910
  11-12	139	13	0.910
  12-13	167	7	0.960
  13-14	119	17	0.880
  14-15	119	5	0.960
  15-16	120	7	0.940
  16-17	109	3	0.970
  17-18	77	0	1.000
  18-19	68	2	0.970
  19-20	56	1	0.980
  20-21	63	1	0.980
  21+	229	1	1.000
  Data is symmetric

• The one loss in the last row was when Alabama State (13-14) lost to Arkansas Pine Bluff (1-26).

• We can graph this as well. Graph of data

• Does this look like any type of function?

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