Talks
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Talks
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Sean Forman
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Motivation
Sean Forman
Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science
Saint Joseph's University
Philadelphia, PA
NCAA Bracket Selection using Monte Carlo Simulation
http://www.sju.edu/~sforman/research/talks/NCAAursinus/
Motivation
Monte Carlo Simulation
How Good Are Teams, Really?
Modelling Individual Games
Gathered Data on Point Spreads and Outcomes
Fitting to a Logistic Model
Playing Some Games
The NCAA Pool
Simulation 1, round 1
Simulation 1, round 2
Simulation 1, round 6
Played One Million Times
Some Outcomes
Probability of Reaching a Round
Probability of Winning a Game
Cinderella Sweet 16's
Win It All
Final Four Teams
Conclusion
Notes on the results
2005 Outcomes
Probability of Reaching a Round
Probability of Winning a Game
Cinderella Sweet 16's
Win It All
Final Four Teams
Conclusion
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Motivation
Copyright© 2005, Saint Joseph's University and Sean Forman